World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2022

Nutrichemichal Group
Sep 25, 2022
2 min read

Updated: Mar 11, 2025

Forecasts of world capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, up to 2025, are provided in table 1 . Forecasts of world supply are provided in table 2. Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3

DEMAND

Demand for fertilizer use Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use, up to 2022, are provided in table 3. Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.

Demand for other uses

Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for other uses, up to 2022, are provided in table 4. Regional and subregional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

The potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is calculated as maximum achievable production (supply) minus total demand (including fertilizer and other uses): Potential balance = supply – (fertilizer uses + other uses demand) where supply of each nutrient refers to: » Ammonia, for nitrogen » Phosphoric acid, for phosphorus » Potash, for potassium Given that phosphorus supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H3 PO4 ), the demand considered in the balance is also restricted to phosphoric acid-based fertilizer demand. These data are available in annex 2.

Unforeseeable factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations, logistical problems, unscheduled shut down due to technical reasons, natural calamities (for example, earthquakes, mine flooding) are not considered in the balance. Demand projections are based on agronomic considerations (for example, cropped area and application rate of fertilizer), market feedback, estimates by industry associations, growth models, econometric models and expert judgement. Forecasts of potential world balances of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, up to 2022, are provided in table 5. Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3. Figure 5 indicates the potential balances by region in 2022, the final year of the forecast period.