ADDING FUEL TO A FIRE - THE GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
- Nutrichemichal Group
- Aug 18, 2022
- 2 min read
Updated: Oct 26, 2022
Food security has been suffering in many parts of the
world due to several manmade conflicts, climate shocks,
COVID-19 and the rising cost of living. The war in
Ukraine, a major breadbasket for the world, risks deepening
these challenges on an unparalleled scale.
The effects of the conflict do not unravel in a vacuum.
Economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven
and disrupted by the spread of new variants of
the virus. Household incomes remain depressed, with
projections for 2022 suggesting a working-hour deficit
equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs. Government resources
are severely strained after trillion-dollar support
packages to avoid economic collapse. The global debt
burden has risen to dangerous levels, especially in the
developing world - about 60 percent of low-income
countries are now in, or at risk of, debt distress.
After a relentless rise since mid-2020, global food prices
have surpassed previous peaks of the 2008-2011 crisis,
with the war constituting an additional push to reach
these new historical highs. With incomes being low as
food prices are soaring, today's situation is much more
worrisome than those past crises. In addition, other key
drivers of hunger are intensifying. State-based armed
conflicts have roughly doubled between 2010 and 2020;
and the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide,
who are among the most vulnerable, more than
tripled, breaking the 100-million mark. The climate crisis
is adding further stress to food security, as evidenced
by extreme climate conditions in many parts of
the world - including widespread and persistent multiseason
drought in East Africa.
Food inflation is alarmingly high in many places, reaching
15 percent or more in 40 countries. This is causing
major problems for poor families, who often spend more
than half of their incomes on food. The World Food Programe's
(WFP) indicator to detect price spikes currently
raises the highest alert for markets in 51 out of 62 countries
with sufficient data.
While early this year, 570 000 people were in famine-like
conditions and 44 million just one step away from these,
these numbers have grown to 750 000 people in faminelike
conditions and 48.9 million people that are one step
away - almost 5 million more than three months ago. According
to WFP's near-real time monitoring, food security
is at "high risk" or at "moderate risk but deteriorating" in
23 out of 92 countries that are being monitored.2
As the war drags on, the global food security situation is
expected to worsen further. Acute hunger is projected to
increase by an additional 47 million people in 81 countries
with WFP operations, from 276 million to 323 million,
which would be a shocking 17-percent jump, with the
steepest rises in sub-Saharan Africa.3 Moreover, World
Bank research finds that each one-percentage point increase
in food prices will throw 10 million people more
into extreme poverty.
Escalating food prices are also hampering the efforts of
humanitarian agencies, with rising food, fuel and transport
prices severely limiting the level of assistance. WFP,
for example, projects that food procurement and transport
costs will increase by about USD 71 million per
month compared to the average in 2019 - a 44 percent
rise and enough to feed 3.8 million people with a single
food ration per day for a month.
Current food insecurity challenges are predominantly
linked to accessibility and affordability issues. However,
extreme weather conditions combined with a lack of fertilizer
supplies and persistent logistical constraints could
easily turn a food access crisis into a crisis in availability,
which would further darken the outlook for the world's
most vulnerable.
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